What do you think it is?
If I evaluate the scenario by using Sun Tzu, I can predict that the side that has:
- chain of command
- supply chains
- strategic and tactical expertise
- CLEAR GOALS in sights
Incorrect. Every war starts by making calculations. How much money there is to spend, how much troops there are, all the logistics etc.. Also, the calculations on what the enemy has. What are their estimated numbers? The enemies strenght, firepower, manpower and so on. Then calculations on different scenarios:
-if we attack here, time it like so then what could happen
-if lure the enemy to a trap, then what happens
Numerous different scenarios are planned. It is an enormous effort to go to a shooting war! All this planning is done in very peaceful settings, with no emotions. Cigar in the mouth, glass of bourbon on the table.
When the decision has been made to go for war, THEN, the masses needs to be agitated for it. This again needs tremendous propaganda efforts that needs to be planned and put into action.
When all is lined up, the masses are grinding their teeth in rage, then the war is just simply kicked off into action.
You should study these things. Sun Tzu is a good source to start.
Neither the Left or the Right have any of this. Not even close.
So, what's going to happen if shooting war starts?
1. US military will be split into two (or more) factions loyal to one or the other fighting party or with an agenda of their own
2. US military will use it's firepower on both sides and attempts to crush both sides and calm the tits down by force. Fighters from both camps would end up in same FEMA camps. Probably field courts with death penalties on participating in armed conflict.
You can forget romantic ideas of small guerilla bands fighting like a movie star and declaring a heartbreaking victory eventually. All the larpers will only find themselves sniffing glue in some basement and trying to stay under the radar.
Civil wars are the most violent, brutal and hideous of all forms of war.
Finland had one hundred years ago. Still recovering. The "reds" (communists) have still gripe against the "whites" and are actively looking for a rematch. Takes generations to recover.
Think hard, with cold logic, reason and facts, do you really want to see it happen on your soil.
Boys, aged 15 or so, getting dragged out from the dinner table and executed to the front yard for assisting bolsheviks, or, on the other side because they were against the bolsheviks.
Brothers could end up in different camps and so on.
It's a mess.
Your issues there are nothing in the magnitude that requires shooting war. There is no Soviet Union. The push for the conflict is artificial, based only on emotions. No war have ever started because of emotions. They are always calculated efforts. Very cold calculations. Never, emotional.
Lets take a look at some of the biggest hurdles to Civil war in America
1. The 2 sides are unclear.
There really isn't any defining beliefs to both sides, in the Civil War the North wanted to end slavery, and the south wanted to protect slavery and states rights. Fast forward to now and the left wants to impeach drumpf, fight white nationalists, and have open borders. On the right some want a civil war to take out the cities that are punishing them with leftism, there are a small segment that unironically want race war, and some want to live some 1776 anti government fantasy. The left also contains Northeastern Bureacrats and socialists, southern and Midwestern Blacks, and Hispanics. These groups all have different wants and it would be very hard to organize them.
Donald Trump is president. The war would make no sense for the left if they didnt have a federal government to back them up. Sure there would be a lot of desertion by Soldiers under a leftist president, but a lot would stay.
Honestly, the economics aren't as vital as you'd believe. One needs only the threat of economic instability should their side not secure a victory. Consider this, the 2018 mid term elections are coming up, and that means democrat seats potentially. Democrats are banking HARD on this, and are reducing civility in lock step with it. Should they lose the elections and not secure seats to be a valid check on Trump, they may see that as an inability to stop him entirely, this in conjunction with an investigation 2 months from wrapping so far with no hard evidence of wrongdoing that they too have been banking on.
All it would take would be the right push just after november.
We are secure for the next 3 to 4 months. But after that?
It's hard to say.
>America is spiraling towards civil war.
No, it's not. They tried it already with the Trayvon era Chimpouts, 3 times in fact, and it blew up in their faces. For some reason burning down American cities isn't very popular.
Then they tried it again with C-Ville after Trump was elected AND with a dead White girl instead of some Dindu Crack Thug....it still didn't work and only exposed them further when the MSM defended Antifa and said they were heroes for hitting old people in the head with bike locks.
So fuck off, you aren't getting your Race War. You will simply continue to be slowly squeezed out of power as more and more regular Americans come online and realize whose really been behind everything.
It will be "relatively" grassroots. Decentralized nodes of far left institutions spurred by higher institutions with no traceable connection will cause physical unrest (street violence). Higher ups will capitalize on this causing a positive feedback loop of chaos.
It will be a pushed by the top but won't be controlled by them. However, when things get heated the higher ups will dissolve into the ranks of those leading street violence and the best organized faction will quickly assimilate different groups into theirs
No, it's cold blooded effort. Think of an intelligent gang of wealthy sociopaths. That is the mindset that plans these things years in advance. They are the ones that starts to sand all the relations with the upcoming enemy and push the buttons that will trigger the masses into a state of mind that is welcoming the war efforts.
Again, the normie sees the situation from a very narrow point of view, that is very much emotional. But the true intention and modus operandi behind the scenes, is just cold and emotionless. If there are emotions, it's being thrilled and exited.
We are already in a cold Civil War and it's been heating up ever since Trump's miraculous 2016 election win. Won't ever boil over to an all out war, worst case scenario rioting breaks out and patriots take up arms to defend property. Leftist would utter lose are considering the equipment gun enthusiasts have been stockpiling. Your average feral hog hunter has military grade gen3 night optics and thermal scope mounted suppressed rifles. It'd be a slaughter.
While I agree that victory will come the way you mentioned, I don't see the army splitting.
The state will first try to control the situation and the "extremism", it will atempt to keep the status quo selling a message of normality and "domestic terrorism".
If that fails, which is likely to happen if one of the sides takes control of territory or through secession, it depends on how many will seceed and the ground upon which alliances will be made.
Can't wait for it.
At this rate with the Dems bitching and wanting to get rid of stuff that's popular (ie Tax cuts) and the polls in FAVOR of Trump plus no REAL evidence of Trump doing anything with a Russian collusion bs. I feel that it's gonna be a RED Typhoon instead of a BLUE wave. The Dems lost in 2016 because they were smug, now they are 100x worse.
The left has strong institutional power wil many shadow figures in the back pulling strings. Look how their protests are orchestrated.
You give power mongers too much credit. These people capitalize on the opurtunity of social unrest to seize power, caught up in the emotion themselves. They, however, are often among the first to realize what's going on in society. Will they try to instigate unrest to get what they want? Yes. Can they create unrest from nothing? No. You cannot lead those who will not follow. There are plenty of cases of failed civil wars for just this very reason. Indeed Leaders of successful revolutions are often incidental.
I think it's much more likely that the left would rebel, causing a rift in American society. The government would employ the military and become increasingly right wing while claiming the opposition is illegitimate. "Alt-right" ideaology would become common place among those who fill in the power vaccuum left by the seceding Dems.
I have, actually, paid attention to this. If it follows the Ukraine tactic, these demonstrators, activists are forgotten the next day when the military's get engaged. Have you heard anything about the oh so brave activists in Ukraine, who restlessly banged their bongos day and night and clashed with the police, ever since the war started? Yea, me neither. One piece of news I managed to spot was that they are literally sniffing glue in the basements of Kiev and doing their best to dodge bullets.
The leftists are non sequitur. They serve only purpose in lighting the shit up. When that's done, NOBODY cares about them anymore. They are just disposable little tools.
The right is fighting an uphill battle becaus they have to maintain order and the status quo of social peace. The left can lie, kill, cheat, and steal and still be seen as the under dog heroes fighting the tyranny. Whereas the right can't so much as question a citizen of their affiliation without being seen as anti American monsters. Socially that puts the right in a very tough spot.
The heart of leftwing subversion would have to be ripped out from the globalist swine if we were to win.
Emotions are used, yes. However, emotions are not the root of any war. That's the premise I try to make.
The root of all wars is exploitation. Organizing the affairs with brute force, so that the victor can exploit much larger resources. Root of all wars is the exploitation, seizing control, and gain supremacy over resources, land and populations by force.
Idealisms are just smoke screens.
Well, someone will always hold the positions of power. It is important that it is under the hands of a benevolent system of governance. So, there are good people and bad people. It is important that the good people kicks the asses of the bad people.
So, it's not always the lust for power. With the lefties, it is always about the power for powers sake. They don't really know what to do with, but they want it bad. Just ask any leftist professor how the perfect socialist state operates on a normal tuesday to a normal Pete the Proletariat. NONE of them have an answer. They don't know. Yet, they insist on getting to power to take care of things, which they no nothing about.
That would have been the plan, I suppose, under the Hillary's command.
Trump ruined that one. With it, there goes the rest of the plot.
I suspect the only reason for any civil unrest anymore is to only hide the crimes, so the international bolshies wouldn't face justice.
Trump needs to appoint an authority that will strip fbi employees of citizenship.
Declaring the fbi to be enemy combatants and therefore no longer citizens means anyone can legally execute a former fbi employee.
We want to strip the enemies of the people of the USA of citizenship.
This means they cannot bring court cases, they cannot sue anyone and have a US court hear the case.
Strip the fbi of citizenship and execute the fbi employees.
It is actually the fbi that is determined to wage war on citizens of the USA, the citizens of the USA do not want war
the fbi is using this moment in time to consolidate its power and prepare for an assault on the people of the USA
it is a corrupt, fucked up, totalitarian mess of sex and drugs
it should be destroyed or dissolved, but only after the fbi employees have been dishonored and stripped of citizenship
if the Constitution has to be amended to make this happen, that is fine
Congress can prepare the legislation and look into the relevant details that will make this law.
When it comes to civil war, you don't want to be out there in the middle of the action at the start, even if recording from a distance. It's wiser to hole up. /pol/acks who prep are better off, no matter the reason they do it for.
It doesn't take much to let it all fall apart. The largest societal disturbance that is most recent is the Colombia Pipeline Explosion. That one oil pipeline explosion knocked out fuel supply for the entire southeast United States. People panicked as they nearly ran out of fuel inside of six hours. We are literally only good for a few hours of gasoline supply in the US if it runs out all of a sudden.
People don't realize how fragile it all is. We're only three missed meals away from societal collapse.
>conservative states hold their ground and their guns
>liberal states ignore federal directives.
>court declares federal gov has no right to impose on states
>libtards go full retard with "newfound independence"
>federal gov finds way to deny lib states gibs beyond basics
>conservative states unite
>california declares independence, reaches out to Canada
>EU shows up for trump/kim jong style "historical meetings" with California leadership
>texas declares independence and alliance with USA
>on behalf of greatest ally USA, Texas as an independent nation,pushes hard on California
>Utah out of nowhere declares independence
>Mormon sovereign state emerges from Utah. Mormon vatican of the west.
>Mormons rename utah, birth of the Deseret nation
>Arizona declares independence. Allies with USA and Texas facilitates discussions between Deserat and USA and Texas
It will happen if people start getting violent and committing acts of violence against each other. For example some leftist shoots up a right wing bar or whatever then a week later a right wing person shoots up a leftist museum or something. Escalation will happen as more and more alienated and mentally unstable people commit atrocities against each side in order to be seen as heroes or martyrs. Think about how school shootings became so popular after Columbine. Eventually it won't just be the weird crazies doing but normal people will go out looking for revenge against the groups they think harmed them. This leads to organizations forming as self defense groups initially and then becoming offensive.
Interested parties will see this as a power play and fund one group or the other or both and chaos will ensue. The only way to avoid this scenario is to not play into their divide and conquer strategy.
At that point, it's your choice. It's always wise to keep at least two weeks of supplies no matter where you live.
I like the US. It's home after all, but my faith in it sometimes wavers a bit. A lot actually. I don't know how it'll turn out, but I know better than to leave such things to chance. I know from experience that when society is in a really bad squeeze, there's a very good chance people can't leave each other be and conspire to take away from others at all costs, all because they have not.
Peace of mind costs me $1200, a bargain when people will do anything just to make it to the next day.
I thought a bit about what a civil war would look like in 2018.
>cities would burn with riots
>national guard and police called to maintain order or at least protect major infrastructure
>people in cities starve
>cities taken over by gov again
you wont be able to travel on highways, not even small groups. Risk would be to high from ambushes raiders, check points.
Small towns, take mine for example.
>36 cops total
>cops will be over run, targeted at home and station
>national guard stuck in cities
>warlords most lickly red necks will rule
>murder, petty crime like theft
>food stolen from gardens
My assessment is chances of survival is low unless you join a local militia allied with local police to protect law and order.